Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Metro Systems Corporation Public Company Limited (MSC.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.16 - $11.45$9.11
Multi-Stage$11.11 - $12.17$11.63
Blended Fair Value$10.37
Current Price$7.75
Upside33.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.46%5.78%0.530.400.380.300.440.470.430.350.300.30
YoY Growth--31.94%5.46%26.37%-32.15%-5.35%8.33%23.34%15.85%0.84%-0.51%
Dividend Yield--6.69%4.77%4.42%3.01%7.38%11.82%6.04%5.84%5.81%5.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)244.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)179.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.8830.5518.33
Cash Retained (M)64.4964.4964.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.88-30.55-18.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.6133.9446.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)360.00360.00360.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.63
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate0.46%1.46%2.46%
Fair Value$7.16$9.11$11.45
Upside / Downside-7.58%17.52%47.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)244.39247.96251.58255.25258.98262.76270.64
Payout Ratio73.61%76.89%80.17%83.45%86.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)179.91190.66201.69213.00224.60236.49250.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate0.46%1.46%2.46%
Year 1 PV (M)174.67176.41178.15
Year 2 PV (M)169.28172.67176.09
Year 3 PV (M)163.78168.72173.76
Year 4 PV (M)158.22164.61171.20
Year 5 PV (M)152.63160.37168.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,182.293,343.863,511.93
Equity Value (M)4,000.874,186.654,379.56
Shares Outstanding (M)360.00360.00360.00
Fair Value$11.11$11.63$12.17
Upside / Downside43.40%50.06%56.97%

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