DDM Analysis: MRO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.91 - $30.03	$24.68
Multi-Stage	$36.63 - $40.32	$38.44
Blended Fair Value	$31.56
Current Price	$26.63
Upside	18.51%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
DPS	8.23%	-6.81%	0.44	0.38	0.25	0.11	0.28	0.29	0.30	0.28	0.80	0.95
YoY Growth	-	-	14.09%	56.03%	120.31%	-60.49%	-4.14%	-0.59%	4.94%	-64.78%	-15.29%	6.89%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.53%	1.60%	0.98%	1.05%	8.59%	1.70%	1.84%	1.79%	7.21%	3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,330.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	253.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,077.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	266.00	166.25	99.75
Cash Retained (M)	1,077.00	1,077.00	1,077.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-266.00	-166.25	-99.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	811.00	910.75	977.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	572.96	572.96	572.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.42	1.59	1.71
LTM Dividend per Share	0.44	0.44	0.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.42	1.59	1.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.86	2.03	2.15
WACC / Discount Rate	7.52%	7.52%	7.52%
Growth Rate	-1.66%	-0.66%	0.34%
Fair Value	$19.91	$24.68	$30.03
Upside / Downside	-25.25%	-7.31%	12.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,330.00	1,321.26	1,312.58	1,303.95	1,295.38	1,286.87	1,325.48
Payout Ratio	19.02%	33.22%	47.41%	61.61%	75.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	253.00	438.90	622.34	803.35	981.96	1,158.18	1,226.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.52%	7.52%	7.52%
Growth Rate	-1.66%	-0.66%	0.34%
Year 1 PV (M)	404.10	408.21	412.32
Year 2 PV (M)	527.57	538.35	549.25
Year 3 PV (M)	627.03	646.35	666.07
Year 4 PV (M)	705.67	734.81	764.85
Year 5 PV (M)	766.32	806.09	847.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	17,957.51	18,889.28	19,859.32
Equity Value (M)	20,988.20	22,023.09	23,099.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	572.96	572.96	572.96
Fair Value	$36.63	$38.44	$40.32
Upside / Downside	37.56%	44.34%	51.39%

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Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener