Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MOL Magyar Olaj- és Gázipari Nyilvánosan Muködo Részvénytársaság (MOL.BD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,881.66 - $18,949.73$11,680.68
Multi-Stage$5,922.55 - $6,449.22$6,181.19
Blended Fair Value$8,930.93
Current Price$2,698.00
Upside231.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.86%14.65%258.04303.71253.0978.620.00129.10114.1269.7063.2655.80
YoY Growth---15.03%20.00%221.92%5,940,300.00%-100.00%13.13%63.74%10.18%13.37%-15.13%
Dividend Yield--8.81%10.25%9.87%2.68%0.00%6.69%3.44%2.51%2.56%2.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)276,734.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)61,673.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55,346.8034,591.7520,755.05
Cash Retained (M)61,673.0061,673.0061,673.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-55,346.80-34,591.75-20,755.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,326.2027,081.2540,917.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)755.62755.62755.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.3735.8454.15
LTM Dividend per Share284.62284.62284.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.3735.8454.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend292.99320.46338.77
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,881.66$11,680.68$18,949.73
Upside / Downside192.13%332.94%602.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)276,734.00294,721.71313,878.62334,280.73356,008.98379,149.56390,524.05
Payout Ratio77.71%80.17%82.63%85.09%87.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215,061.00236,281.88259,352.84284,424.74311,660.21341,234.61361,234.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.42%9.42%9.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)213,909.18215,936.75217,964.33
Year 2 PV (M)212,563.66216,612.40220,699.34
Year 3 PV (M)211,039.81217,098.00223,271.04
Year 4 PV (M)209,352.13217,403.22225,684.33
Year 5 PV (M)207,514.33217,537.35227,943.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,420,801.553,586,027.543,757,577.12
Equity Value (M)4,475,180.654,670,615.274,873,140.13
Shares Outstanding (M)755.62755.62755.62
Fair Value$5,922.55$6,181.19$6,449.22
Upside / Downside119.52%129.10%139.04%

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