Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mills Locação, Serviços e Logística S.A. (MILS3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$215.48 - $253.89$237.93
Multi-Stage$161.94 - $177.70$169.67
Blended Fair Value$203.80
Current Price$11.89
Upside1,614.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-3.16%0.150.010.060.190.000.000.000.000.000.09
YoY Growth--2,706.79%-90.57%-70.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-53.34%
Dividend Yield--1.54%0.04%0.62%2.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)297.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)242.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.5937.2522.35
Cash Retained (M)55.1055.1055.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.59-37.25-22.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-4.4917.8532.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)232.50232.50232.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.080.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.080.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.031.121.19
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate5.09%6.09%7.09%
Fair Value$215.48$237.93$253.89
Upside / Downside1,712.31%1,901.08%2,035.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)297.96316.11335.36355.78377.44400.43412.44
Payout Ratio81.51%83.21%84.90%86.60%88.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)242.86263.02284.73308.11333.29360.39381.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate5.09%6.09%7.09%
Year 1 PV (M)260.20262.68265.16
Year 2 PV (M)278.67284.00289.38
Year 3 PV (M)298.33306.92315.69
Year 4 PV (M)319.25331.57344.25
Year 5 PV (M)341.51358.07375.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,152.4037,905.5239,726.00
Equity Value (M)37,650.3639,448.7741,315.74
Shares Outstanding (M)232.50232.50232.50
Fair Value$161.94$169.67$177.70
Upside / Downside1,261.96%1,327.01%1,394.55%

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