Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MFF Capital Investments Limited (MFF.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.78 - $107.95$72.15
Multi-Stage$36.46 - $39.85$38.13
Blended Fair Value$55.14
Current Price$4.42
Upside1,147.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-10.40%25.87%0.110.080.060.050.040.180.020.020.010.01
YoY Growth--33.99%22.31%24.13%16.69%-75.67%710.79%22.00%39.83%0.59%24.18%
Dividend Yield--2.41%2.15%2.44%2.37%1.56%6.80%0.78%0.70%0.68%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,564.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)95.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,469.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)312.95195.60117.36
Cash Retained (M)1,469.341,469.341,469.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-312.95-195.60-117.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,156.381,273.741,351.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)579.69579.69579.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.202.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.202.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.162.362.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.78$72.15$107.95
Upside / Downside1,048.88%1,532.35%2,342.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,564.771,666.481,774.801,890.162,013.022,143.872,208.18
Payout Ratio6.10%22.88%39.66%56.44%73.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)95.43381.27703.871,066.801,473.931,929.482,042.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)343.40346.66349.91
Year 2 PV (M)570.98581.86592.83
Year 3 PV (M)779.42801.80824.60
Year 4 PV (M)969.911,007.211,045.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,143.561,198.801,256.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,327.7418,164.6719,033.64
Equity Value (M)21,135.0122,100.9923,102.70
Shares Outstanding (M)579.69579.69579.69
Fair Value$36.46$38.13$39.85
Upside / Downside724.87%762.57%801.67%

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