Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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McKesson Corporation (MCK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,405.05 - $6,368.39$5,967.96
Multi-Stage$3,572.65 - $3,922.55$3,744.32
Blended Fair Value$4,856.14
Current Price$732.78
Upside562.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.25%4.27%2.752.502.322.212.202.342.322.092.011.94
YoY Growth--9.87%7.53%5.42%0.36%-6.12%0.68%11.45%3.56%3.69%7.49%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.43%0.54%0.68%1.15%1.53%1.73%1.56%1.22%1.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,033.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,671.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)806.60504.13302.48
Cash Retained (M)3,671.003,671.003,671.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-806.60-504.13-302.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,864.403,166.883,368.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)125.60125.60125.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share22.8125.2126.82
LTM Dividend per Share2.882.882.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share22.8125.2126.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend25.6928.1029.70
WACC / Discount Rate2.58%2.58%2.58%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Fair Value$5,405.05$5,967.96$6,368.39
Upside / Downside637.61%714.43%769.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,033.004,283.294,549.124,831.445,131.285,449.735,613.22
Payout Ratio8.98%25.18%41.39%57.59%73.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.001,078.571,882.682,782.443,786.644,904.765,192.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.58%2.58%2.58%
Growth Rate5.21%6.21%7.21%
Year 1 PV (M)1,041.541,051.441,061.34
Year 2 PV (M)1,755.631,789.161,823.02
Year 3 PV (M)2,505.602,577.732,651.23
Year 4 PV (M)3,292.823,419.823,550.45
Year 5 PV (M)4,118.714,318.214,525.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)436,011.07457,130.52479,060.54
Equity Value (M)448,725.37470,286.88492,671.94
Shares Outstanding (M)125.60125.60125.60
Fair Value$3,572.65$3,744.32$3,922.55
Upside / Downside387.55%410.97%435.30%

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