DDM Analysis: MCD

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$195.11 - $387.87	$270.54
Multi-Stage	$252.33 - $276.41	$264.14
Blended Fair Value	$267.34
Current Price	$292.17
Upside	-8.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.34%	4.24%	6.78	6.31	5.81	5.46	5.23	4.99	4.54	4.30	4.26	4.50
YoY Growth	-	-	7.44%	8.75%	6.37%	4.42%	4.77%	10.01%	5.40%	1.01%	-5.33%	0.44%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.17%	2.25%	2.08%	2.21%	2.33%	3.02%	2.41%	2.75%	3.29%	3.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,415.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	3,354.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,683.00	1,051.88	631.13
Cash Retained (M)	3,354.00	3,354.00	3,354.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,683.00	-1,051.88	-631.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,671.00	2,302.13	2,722.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	717.85	717.85	717.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share	2.33	3.21	3.79
LTM Dividend per Share	7.05	7.05	7.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	2.33	3.21	3.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend	9.38	10.26	10.84
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	2.24%	3.24%	4.24%
Fair Value	$195.11	$270.54	$387.87
Upside / Downside	-33.22%	-7.40%	32.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,415.00	8,687.35	8,968.52	9,258.79	9,558.45	9,867.82	10,163.85
Payout Ratio	60.14%	66.11%	72.09%	78.06%	84.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5,061.00	5,743.56	6,465.01	7,227.14	8,031.83	8,881.04	9,401.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.15%	7.15%	7.15%
Growth Rate	2.24%	3.24%	4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)	5,308.35	5,360.28	5,412.20
Year 2 PV (M)	5,522.37	5,630.93	5,740.55
Year 3 PV (M)	5,705.60	5,874.67	6,047.04
Year 4 PV (M)	5,860.40	6,093.08	6,332.61
Year 5 PV (M)	5,989.01	6,287.70	6,598.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	152,751.56	160,369.63	168,288.67
Equity Value (M)	181,137.30	189,616.28	198,419.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	717.85	717.85	717.85
Fair Value	$252.33	$264.14	$276.41
Upside / Downside	-13.63%	-9.59%	-5.39%

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McDonald's Corporation (MCD)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener