Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Moelis & Company (MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.59 - $106.29$73.37
Multi-Stage$42.82 - $46.55$44.65
Blended Fair Value$59.01
Current Price$71.32
Upside-17.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-56.91%-39.30%0.042.322.236.113.602.664.003.261.971.03
YoY Growth---98.29%4.30%-63.61%69.65%35.25%-33.35%22.74%65.28%91.21%-82.32%
Dividend Yield--0.07%4.13%5.79%13.02%6.57%9.48%9.26%6.41%5.12%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)234.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.9129.3217.59
Cash Retained (M)33.0933.0933.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.91-29.32-17.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)-13.823.7715.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.4978.4978.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.180.050.20
LTM Dividend per Share2.572.572.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.180.050.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.392.612.76
WACC / Discount Rate10.30%10.30%10.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.59$73.37$106.29
Upside / Downside-26.26%2.87%49.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)234.57249.82266.06283.35301.77321.38331.02
Payout Ratio85.89%86.71%87.54%88.36%89.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.48216.63232.89250.36269.11289.24306.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.30%10.30%10.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.56196.41198.25
Year 2 PV (M)187.87191.44195.06
Year 3 PV (M)181.38186.59191.90
Year 4 PV (M)175.11181.84188.77
Year 5 PV (M)169.04177.20185.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,452.752,571.212,694.22
Equity Value (M)3,360.703,504.703,653.87
Shares Outstanding (M)78.4978.4978.49
Fair Value$42.82$44.65$46.55
Upside / Downside-39.97%-37.39%-34.73%

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