DDM Analysis: LPX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.06 - $57.23	$44.97
Multi-Stage	$40.72 - $44.54	$42.59
Blended Fair Value	$43.78
Current Price	$88.84
Upside	-50.72%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.63%	0.00%	1.06	0.99	0.99	0.94	0.93	0.93	1.06	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	7.25%	0.00%	4.55%	1.54%	0.00%	-12.63%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.15%	1.18%	1.82%	1.52%	1.67%	5.40%	4.35%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	216.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	76.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	140.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	43.20	27.00	16.20
Cash Retained (M)	140.00	140.00	140.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-43.20	-27.00	-16.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	96.80	113.00	123.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	70.00	70.00	70.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.38	1.61	1.77
LTM Dividend per Share	1.09	1.09	1.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.38	1.61	1.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.47	2.70	2.85
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	2.28%	3.28%	4.28%
Fair Value	$35.06	$44.97	$57.23
Upside / Downside	-60.53%	-49.38%	-35.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	216.00	223.08	230.39	237.93	245.73	253.78	261.39
Payout Ratio	35.19%	46.15%	57.11%	68.07%	79.04%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	76.00	102.95	131.58	161.97	194.22	228.40	241.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.48%	9.48%	9.48%
Growth Rate	2.28%	3.28%	4.28%
Year 1 PV (M)	93.12	94.03	94.94
Year 2 PV (M)	107.67	109.78	111.92
Year 3 PV (M)	119.89	123.44	127.06
Year 4 PV (M)	130.04	135.20	140.52
Year 5 PV (M)	138.34	145.24	152.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,260.99	2,373.71	2,490.88
Equity Value (M)	2,850.06	2,981.41	3,117.73
Shares Outstanding (M)	70.00	70.00	70.00
Fair Value	$40.72	$42.59	$44.54
Upside / Downside	-54.17%	-52.06%	-49.87%

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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener