Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Ladprao General Hospital Public Company Limited (LPH.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.66 - $15.90$8.81
Multi-Stage$4.05 - $4.41$4.22
Blended Fair Value$6.51
Current Price$3.96
Upside64.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.58%7.30%0.170.160.250.300.100.170.200.310.160.05
YoY Growth--6.25%-36.00%-16.67%200.00%-42.86%-13.73%-35.09%100.00%240.91%-45.45%
Dividend Yield--4.50%3.36%4.50%5.22%2.02%5.68%3.72%4.50%1.67%0.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2820.8012.48
Cash Retained (M)36.8036.8036.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.28-20.80-12.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.5216.0024.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)720.00720.00720.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate8.95%8.95%8.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.66$8.81$15.90
Upside / Downside42.95%122.36%301.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.40177.21188.73201.00214.06227.98234.82
Payout Ratio77.89%80.31%82.73%85.15%87.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.60142.32156.14171.16187.47205.18217.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.95%8.95%8.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)129.40130.63131.86
Year 2 PV (M)129.09131.55134.03
Year 3 PV (M)128.67132.36136.13
Year 4 PV (M)128.15133.07138.14
Year 5 PV (M)127.53133.68140.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,270.532,380.202,494.07
Equity Value (M)2,913.373,041.513,174.31
Shares Outstanding (M)720.00720.00720.00
Fair Value$4.05$4.22$4.41
Upside / Downside2.18%6.67%11.33%

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