Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Liberty Financial Group Limited (LFG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.93 - $162.68$152.46
Multi-Stage$23.98 - $26.21$25.08
Blended Fair Value$88.77
Current Price$3.34
Upside2,557.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS164.59%0.00%0.300.360.490.450.410.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---16.08%-27.22%8.32%10.83%17,583.36%171.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.94%9.61%13.46%11.22%5.18%0.03%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)249.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)199.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.9631.2218.73
Cash Retained (M)50.0050.0050.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.96-31.22-18.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.0418.7831.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)305.34305.34305.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.060.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.060.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$62.93$152.46$162.68
Upside / Downside1,784.25%4,464.61%4,770.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)249.78266.01283.30301.72321.33342.22352.48
Payout Ratio79.98%81.99%83.99%85.99%88.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)199.78218.09237.95259.46282.76307.99326.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)202.67204.60206.52
Year 2 PV (M)205.49209.40213.36
Year 3 PV (M)208.23214.20220.30
Year 4 PV (M)210.89219.00227.34
Year 5 PV (M)213.47223.78234.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,282.386,585.826,900.87
Equity Value (M)7,323.127,656.808,002.86
Shares Outstanding (M)305.34305.34305.34
Fair Value$23.98$25.08$26.21
Upside / Downside618.06%650.78%684.71%

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