Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lancaster Colony Corporation (LANC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$162.94 - $520.68$262.90
Multi-Stage$131.38 - $143.59$137.38
Blended Fair Value$200.14
Current Price$181.31
Upside10.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.47%7.59%3.763.563.363.162.952.752.552.352.156.93
YoY Growth--5.69%6.03%6.46%6.81%7.39%7.89%8.65%9.41%-69.05%282.79%
Dividend Yield--2.08%2.02%2.04%2.10%1.75%1.54%1.84%1.59%1.79%5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.9721.2312.74
Cash Retained (M)64.8764.8764.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.97-21.23-12.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.9143.6552.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.4927.4927.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.591.90
LTM Dividend per Share3.823.823.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.591.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.945.405.71
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$162.94$262.90$520.68
Upside / Downside-10.13%45.00%187.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169.83179.12188.92199.26210.16221.66228.31
Payout Ratio61.80%67.44%73.08%78.72%84.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.95120.80138.06156.86177.29199.50211.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)111.16112.23113.29
Year 2 PV (M)116.91119.16121.43
Year 3 PV (M)122.23125.77129.38
Year 4 PV (M)127.13132.07137.15
Year 5 PV (M)131.64138.06144.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,003.103,149.603,301.77
Equity Value (M)3,612.163,776.893,947.75
Shares Outstanding (M)27.4927.4927.49
Fair Value$131.38$137.38$143.59
Upside / Downside-27.54%-24.23%-20.80%

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