Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,397.12 - $6,726.95$6,304.14
Multi-Stage$1,131.54 - $1,240.26$1,184.90
Blended Fair Value$3,744.52
Current Price$316.00
Upside1,084.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.41%13.50%2.131.991.701.461.101.041.041.000.910.75
YoY Growth--7.01%16.81%16.49%33.33%5.43%-0.36%4.36%10.00%20.75%25.46%
Dividend Yield--0.72%0.67%0.74%0.49%0.28%1.27%1.11%0.99%1.06%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)898.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)842.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)179.78112.3667.42
Cash Retained (M)842.70842.70842.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-179.78-112.36-67.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)662.92730.34775.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)26.5826.5826.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share24.9527.4829.17
LTM Dividend per Share2.112.112.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share24.9527.4829.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.0629.6031.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,397.12$6,304.14$6,726.95
Upside / Downside1,607.95%1,894.98%2,028.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)898.90957.331,019.551,085.831,156.401,231.571,268.52
Payout Ratio6.25%23.00%39.75%56.50%73.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.20220.20405.29613.50847.071,108.411,173.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)205.73207.68209.63
Year 2 PV (M)353.77360.51367.31
Year 3 PV (M)500.32514.69529.32
Year 4 PV (M)645.41670.23695.76
Year 5 PV (M)789.03827.14866.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,576.4028,908.3530,291.27
Equity Value (M)30,070.6531,488.5932,960.00
Shares Outstanding (M)26.5826.5826.58
Fair Value$1,131.54$1,184.90$1,240.26
Upside / Downside258.08%274.97%292.49%

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