Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Koninklijke KPN N.V. (KPN.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.00 - $8.78$6.61
Multi-Stage$14.85 - $16.36$15.59
Blended Fair Value$11.10
Current Price$4.14
Upside168.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.76%21.26%0.150.140.130.130.120.120.120.120.100.11
YoY Growth--10.05%2.80%3.07%4.73%3.32%-3.21%3.93%20.62%-14.75%426.60%
Dividend Yield--4.23%4.34%4.56%4.68%4.90%4.49%4.77%4.03%3.46%3.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,674.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,160.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)514.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)334.80209.25125.55
Cash Retained (M)514.00514.00514.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-334.80-209.25-125.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)179.20304.75388.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,335.084,335.084,335.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate5.01%5.01%5.01%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Fair Value$5.00$6.61$8.78
Upside / Downside20.86%59.68%112.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,674.001,672.461,670.911,669.371,667.841,666.301,716.29
Payout Ratio69.30%73.44%77.58%81.72%85.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,160.001,228.191,296.251,364.181,431.991,499.671,587.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.01%5.01%5.01%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Year 1 PV (M)1,157.841,169.541,181.25
Year 2 PV (M)1,152.001,175.411,199.06
Year 3 PV (M)1,142.931,177.951,213.67
Year 4 PV (M)1,131.021,177.461,225.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,116.631,174.231,234.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,682.5961,709.7264,860.50
Equity Value (M)64,383.0067,584.3070,913.97
Shares Outstanding (M)4,335.084,335.084,335.08
Fair Value$14.85$15.59$16.36
Upside / Downside258.74%276.57%295.12%

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