Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.61 - $35.19$25.33
Multi-Stage$34.35 - $37.68$35.99
Blended Fair Value$30.66
Current Price$28.31
Upside8.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.40%3.81%1.151.141.131.101.060.970.730.500.501.90
YoY Growth--1.11%1.00%2.50%3.43%9.20%33.68%44.46%0.18%-73.53%140.00%
Dividend Yield--4.03%6.18%6.44%5.81%6.38%6.99%3.63%3.35%2.31%10.64%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,727.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,592.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)135.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)545.40340.88204.53
Cash Retained (M)135.00135.00135.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-545.40-340.88-204.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-410.40-205.88-69.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,222.002,222.002,222.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.09-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.09-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.071.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Fair Value$18.61$25.33$35.19
Upside / Downside-34.25%-10.54%24.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,727.002,774.772,823.372,872.832,923.152,974.353,063.58
Payout Ratio95.05%94.04%93.03%92.02%91.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,592.002,609.382,626.572,643.572,660.352,676.922,833.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.07%6.07%6.07%
Growth Rate0.75%1.75%2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)2,435.972,460.152,484.33
Year 2 PV (M)2,289.072,334.732,380.85
Year 3 PV (M)2,150.772,215.452,281.42
Year 4 PV (M)2,020.592,102.012,185.87
Year 5 PV (M)1,898.051,994.132,094.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,535.0468,852.5572,303.07
Equity Value (M)76,329.4979,959.0383,729.60
Shares Outstanding (M)2,222.002,222.002,222.00
Fair Value$34.35$35.99$37.68
Upside / Downside21.34%27.11%33.11%

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