DDM Analysis: KMDS.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,181.23 - $2,271.13	$1,617.36
Multi-Stage	$940.77 - $1,024.52	$981.90
Blended Fair Value	$1,299.63
Current Price	$590.00
Upside	120.28%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	52.97%	0.00%	37.00	36.00	35.00	21.25	5.25	4.42	0.53	10.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	2.78%	2.86%	64.71%	304.76%	18.85%	732.62%	-94.69%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.97%	7.53%	5.19%	4.96%	1.04%	1.18%	0.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	57,829.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	30,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	27,429.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11,565.91	7,228.70	4,337.22
Cash Retained (M)	27,429.56	27,429.56	27,429.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11,565.91	-7,228.70	-4,337.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15,863.65	20,200.87	23,092.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	800.00	800.00	800.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	19.83	25.25	28.87
LTM Dividend per Share	38.00	38.00	38.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	19.83	25.25	28.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend	57.83	63.25	66.87
WACC / Discount Rate	10.66%	10.66%	10.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1,181.23	$1,617.36	$2,271.13
Upside / Downside	100.21%	174.13%	284.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	57,829.56	61,588.49	65,591.74	69,855.20	74,395.79	79,231.51	81,608.46
Payout Ratio	52.57%	60.05%	67.54%	75.03%	82.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	30,400.00	36,986.73	44,301.29	52,410.48	61,386.68	71,308.36	75,487.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.66%	10.66%	10.66%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	33,108.43	33,422.26	33,736.08
Year 2 PV (M)	35,497.83	36,173.97	36,856.48
Year 3 PV (M)	37,592.07	38,671.21	39,770.80
Year 4 PV (M)	39,413.51	40,929.24	42,488.28
Year 5 PV (M)	40,983.03	42,962.53	45,017.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)	566,018.74	593,357.66	621,742.90
Equity Value (M)	752,613.62	785,516.86	819,612.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	800.00	800.00	800.00
Fair Value	$940.77	$981.90	$1,024.52
Upside / Downside	59.45%	66.42%	73.65%

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PT Kurniamitra Duta Sentosa, Tbk (KMDS.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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