Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kingfish Limited (KFL.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.73 - $45.46$15.72
Multi-Stage$5.29 - $5.79$5.54
Blended Fair Value$10.63
Current Price$1.33
Upside699.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.20%11.98%0.070.070.070.080.060.050.040.040.030.03
YoY Growth--3.61%-6.40%-14.31%33.54%16.08%30.50%6.79%23.21%19.89%16.94%
Dividend Yield--5.43%5.36%5.43%4.78%3.29%4.18%3.02%2.95%2.43%2.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.3611.486.89
Cash Retained (M)56.8856.8856.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.36-11.48-6.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.5245.4049.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)343.33343.33343.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.73$15.72$45.46
Upside / Downside556.49%1,082.18%3,318.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.8197.78104.13110.90118.11125.79129.56
Payout Ratio38.05%48.44%58.83%69.22%79.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.9347.3661.2676.7794.03113.21119.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.4143.8244.23
Year 2 PV (M)51.4652.4453.43
Year 3 PV (M)59.1060.8062.52
Year 4 PV (M)66.3468.9071.52
Year 5 PV (M)73.2176.7580.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,524.151,597.761,674.20
Equity Value (M)1,817.671,900.461,986.32
Shares Outstanding (M)343.33343.33343.33
Fair Value$5.29$5.54$5.79
Upside / Downside298.06%316.19%334.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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