Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Kemira Oyj (KEMIRA.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.66 - $25.21$19.97
Multi-Stage$21.05 - $23.04$22.02
Blended Fair Value$21.00
Current Price$19.67
Upside6.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.29%1.99%0.670.610.570.610.550.520.560.560.560.56
YoY Growth--9.98%7.09%-6.72%11.20%5.93%-7.33%0.46%0.46%-0.12%0.70%
Dividend Yield--3.36%3.50%3.53%5.17%4.22%5.90%5.01%5.38%4.84%5.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)224.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)112.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.9228.0816.85
Cash Retained (M)112.60112.60112.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.92-28.08-16.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)67.6884.5395.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)155.30155.30155.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.540.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.720.720.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.540.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Fair Value$15.66$19.97$25.21
Upside / Downside-20.37%1.52%28.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)224.60229.70234.92240.25245.71251.29258.83
Payout Ratio49.87%57.89%65.92%73.95%81.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)112.00132.98154.86177.66201.42226.16239.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate1.27%2.27%3.27%
Year 1 PV (M)121.08122.28123.47
Year 2 PV (M)128.39130.94133.51
Year 3 PV (M)134.11138.13142.22
Year 4 PV (M)138.44143.99149.71
Year 5 PV (M)141.54148.67156.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,604.862,736.032,872.43
Equity Value (M)3,268.433,420.033,577.43
Shares Outstanding (M)155.30155.30155.30
Fair Value$21.05$22.02$23.04
Upside / Downside6.99%11.96%17.11%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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