Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Thonburi Medical Centre Public Company Limited (KDH.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.75 - $315.22$210.19
Multi-Stage$109.75 - $119.76$114.66
Blended Fair Value$162.43
Current Price$85.00
Upside91.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%107.66%1.970.740.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--167.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.24%0.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)151.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.3118.9411.37
Cash Retained (M)102.29102.29102.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.31-18.94-11.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.9883.3490.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.3819.3819.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.714.304.69
LTM Dividend per Share2.542.542.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.714.304.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.256.847.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$147.75$210.19$315.22
Upside / Downside73.82%147.28%270.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)151.56161.41171.90183.08194.98207.65213.88
Payout Ratio32.51%44.01%55.51%67.00%78.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.2771.0395.42122.67153.06186.89197.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)63.9964.5965.20
Year 2 PV (M)77.4378.9080.39
Year 3 PV (M)89.6792.2594.87
Year 4 PV (M)100.79104.67108.66
Year 5 PV (M)110.86116.22121.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,684.671,766.041,850.52
Equity Value (M)2,127.422,222.672,321.42
Shares Outstanding (M)19.3819.3819.38
Fair Value$109.75$114.66$119.76
Upside / Downside29.12%34.90%40.89%

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