Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Johns Lyng Group Limited (JLG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.37 - $40.92$16.29
Multi-Stage$5.92 - $6.46$6.19
Blended Fair Value$11.24
Current Price$3.17
Upside254.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.58%0.00%0.070.090.070.050.040.040.020.000.000.00
YoY Growth---20.90%30.22%47.11%35.43%-7.87%152.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.27%1.59%1.31%0.83%0.69%1.62%1.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.0210.646.38
Cash Retained (M)39.4539.4539.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.02-10.64-6.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.4228.8133.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)279.99279.99279.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.240.270.28
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9.37$16.29$40.92
Upside / Downside195.51%413.94%1,190.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.1190.6496.53102.81109.49116.61120.10
Payout Ratio53.65%60.92%68.19%75.46%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.6655.2265.8377.5890.58104.94111.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.24%8.24%8.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)50.5451.0251.50
Year 2 PV (M)55.1456.1957.25
Year 3 PV (M)59.4761.1862.92
Year 4 PV (M)63.5565.9968.51
Year 5 PV (M)67.3970.6474.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,361.711,427.481,495.77
Equity Value (M)1,657.791,732.491,809.95
Shares Outstanding (M)279.99279.99279.99
Fair Value$5.92$6.19$6.46
Upside / Downside86.78%95.19%103.92%

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