Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

John Hancock Income Securities Trust (JHS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset Management - IncomeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.99 - $8.52$7.24
Multi-Stage$22.39 - $24.72$23.53
Blended Fair Value$15.38
Current Price$11.36
Upside35.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.88%-6.97%0.470.410.920.880.750.670.740.810.850.90
YoY Growth--12.52%-54.96%4.23%17.60%12.70%-9.91%-8.70%-4.83%-5.69%-6.05%
Dividend Yield--4.09%4.23%8.78%5.73%4.86%4.57%5.63%5.47%5.97%6.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.191.370.82
Cash Retained (M)0.560.560.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.19-1.37-0.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.63-0.81-0.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.6511.6511.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.07-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.14-0.07-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate5.57%5.57%5.57%
Growth Rate-6.21%-5.21%-4.21%
Fair Value$5.99$7.24$8.52
Upside / Downside-47.27%-36.31%-25.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10.9610.389.849.338.848.388.63
Payout Ratio94.90%93.92%92.94%91.96%90.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.409.759.158.588.057.547.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.57%5.57%5.57%
Growth Rate-6.21%-5.21%-4.21%
Year 1 PV (M)9.149.249.34
Year 2 PV (M)8.048.218.38
Year 3 PV (M)7.067.297.53
Year 4 PV (M)6.216.486.76
Year 5 PV (M)5.465.756.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)224.87237.12249.89
Equity Value (M)260.78274.09287.95
Shares Outstanding (M)11.6511.6511.65
Fair Value$22.39$23.53$24.72
Upside / Downside97.10%107.16%117.64%

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