Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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JDE Peet's N.V. (JDE.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.51 - $31.23$25.53
Multi-Stage$44.48 - $48.86$46.63
Blended Fair Value$36.08
Current Price$24.24
Upside48.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS38.05%0.00%0.690.680.700.360.020.140.181.140.000.00
YoY Growth--0.59%-1.74%96.02%1,500.00%-83.82%-24.44%-84.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.17%2.81%2.58%1.31%0.06%0.38%0.51%3.18%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,150.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)855.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)230.00143.7586.25
Cash Retained (M)295.00295.00295.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-230.00-143.75-86.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.00151.25208.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)495.22495.22495.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.310.42
LTM Dividend per Share1.731.731.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.310.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.862.032.15
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.51$25.53$31.23
Upside / Downside-15.41%5.33%28.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,150.001,138.501,127.121,115.841,104.691,093.641,126.45
Payout Ratio74.35%77.48%80.61%83.74%86.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)855.00882.09908.55934.40959.64984.271,041.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)816.98825.32833.66
Year 2 PV (M)779.38795.37811.52
Year 3 PV (M)742.39765.35788.77
Year 4 PV (M)706.16735.43765.60
Year 5 PV (M)670.83705.77742.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,309.1519,262.5520,255.26
Equity Value (M)22,024.9023,089.7824,196.94
Shares Outstanding (M)495.22495.22495.22
Fair Value$44.48$46.63$48.86
Upside / Downside83.48%92.35%101.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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