Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock (JCAP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.03 - $166.71$110.14
Multi-Stage$57.88 - $63.12$60.45
Blended Fair Value$85.30
Current Price$17.26
Upside394.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320192018201720162015
DPS33.51%0.00%1.030.871.190.870.480.240.120.000.000.00
YoY Growth--17.79%-26.75%36.39%80.45%99.73%97.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.55%4.71%6.44%4.72%2.62%1.31%0.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)140.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.0217.5110.51
Cash Retained (M)76.1376.1376.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.02-17.51-10.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.1258.6265.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.9734.9734.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.681.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.831.831.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.681.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.203.513.71
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$77.03$110.14$166.71
Upside / Downside346.28%538.12%865.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)140.08149.18158.88169.20180.20191.92197.67
Payout Ratio45.65%54.52%63.39%72.26%81.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.9481.33100.71122.27146.20172.72182.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)73.3274.0174.71
Year 2 PV (M)81.8483.4084.97
Year 3 PV (M)89.5792.1494.76
Year 4 PV (M)96.55100.26104.08
Year 5 PV (M)102.82107.79112.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,579.971,656.281,735.52
Equity Value (M)2,024.062,113.882,206.98
Shares Outstanding (M)34.9734.9734.97
Fair Value$57.88$60.45$63.12
Upside / Downside235.37%250.25%265.68%

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