Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.90 - $197.92$135.72
Multi-Stage$135.61 - $148.91$142.13
Blended Fair Value$138.92
Current Price$62.97
Upside120.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-18.71%3.83%2.082.974.682.944.905.862.482.424.811.92
YoY Growth---29.87%-36.66%59.07%-39.90%-16.41%136.43%2.48%-49.76%151.11%34.17%
Dividend Yield--3.30%3.09%4.70%3.85%6.06%7.94%2.57%3.40%7.20%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.208.254.95
Cash Retained (M)48.5148.5148.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.20-8.25-4.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.3140.2643.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.7311.7311.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.013.433.71
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.013.433.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.504.925.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$96.90$135.72$197.92
Upside / Downside53.89%115.52%214.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.0067.8769.7971.7673.7975.8878.16
Payout Ratio26.50%39.20%51.90%64.60%77.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.4926.6136.2246.3657.0468.2972.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)24.7324.9725.21
Year 2 PV (M)31.2831.9032.52
Year 3 PV (M)37.2138.3139.44
Year 4 PV (M)42.5544.2445.99
Year 5 PV (M)47.3449.7152.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,407.461,477.941,551.21
Equity Value (M)1,590.561,667.071,746.55
Shares Outstanding (M)11.7311.7311.73
Fair Value$135.61$142.13$148.91
Upside / Downside115.35%125.71%136.48%

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