Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Indonesia Fibreboard Industry Tbk (IFII.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$274.56 - $467.77$358.48
Multi-Stage$1,122.96 - $1,238.93$1,179.79
Blended Fair Value$769.14
Current Price$230.00
Upside234.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%10.002.004.000.005.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--400.00%-50.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.55%1.32%2.09%0.00%3.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)214,406.09
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150,592.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)63,814.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42,881.2226,800.7616,080.46
Cash Retained (M)63,814.0963,814.0963,814.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-42,881.22-26,800.76-16,080.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)20,932.8737,013.3347,733.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,412.009,412.009,412.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.223.935.07
LTM Dividend per Share16.0016.0016.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.223.935.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.2219.9321.07
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$274.56$358.48$467.77
Upside / Downside19.38%55.86%103.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)214,406.09212,262.03210,139.41208,038.02205,957.64203,898.06210,015.00
Payout Ratio70.24%74.19%78.14%82.09%86.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150,592.00157,476.03164,207.32170,788.24177,221.11183,508.25194,263.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)149,165.89150,687.99152,210.10
Year 2 PV (M)147,333.89150,356.05153,408.89
Year 3 PV (M)145,152.05149,640.98154,221.51
Year 4 PV (M)142,671.02148,584.07154,679.04
Year 5 PV (M)139,936.49147,223.31154,810.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,845,070.5110,357,726.1710,891,518.97
Equity Value (M)10,569,329.8611,104,218.5711,660,849.07
Shares Outstanding (M)9,412.009,412.009,412.00
Fair Value$1,122.96$1,179.79$1,238.93
Upside / Downside388.24%412.95%438.67%

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