DDM Analysis: IDPR.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$82.73 - $116.52	$99.49
Multi-Stage	$152.47 - $167.03	$159.61
Blended Fair Value	$129.55
Current Price	$192.00
Upside	-32.53%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.94%	0.00%	5.00	1.00	1.00	5.00	0.00	10.00	15.00	10.00	5.00	37.03
YoY Growth	-	-	400.00%	0.00%	-80.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-33.33%	50.00%	100.00%	-86.50%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.89%	0.67%	0.60%	2.87%	0.00%	3.85%	3.42%	1.18%	0.32%	2.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	26,434.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	20,030.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	6,404.55

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,286.91	3,304.32	1,982.59
Cash Retained (M)	6,404.55	6,404.55	6,404.55
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,286.91	-3,304.32	-1,982.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,117.64	3,100.23	4,421.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,003.00	2,003.00	2,003.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.56	1.55	2.21
LTM Dividend per Share	10.00	10.00	10.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.56	1.55	2.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	10.56	11.55	12.21
WACC / Discount Rate	9.08%	9.08%	9.08%
Growth Rate	-3.26%	-2.26%	-1.26%
Fair Value	$82.73	$99.49	$116.52
Upside / Downside	-56.91%	-48.18%	-39.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	26,434.55	25,836.13	25,251.27	24,679.64	24,120.95	23,574.92	24,282.16
Payout Ratio	75.77%	78.62%	81.46%	84.31%	87.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	20,030.00	20,311.76	20,570.50	20,807.11	21,022.48	21,217.42	22,461.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.08%	9.08%	9.08%
Growth Rate	-3.26%	-2.26%	-1.26%
Year 1 PV (M)	18,430.28	18,620.80	18,811.32
Year 2 PV (M)	16,936.11	17,288.07	17,643.65
Year 3 PV (M)	15,544.08	16,031.13	16,528.26
Year 4 PV (M)	14,250.21	14,848.65	15,465.75
Year 5 PV (M)	13,050.12	13,738.73	14,456.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)	227,182.10	239,169.74	251,658.16
Equity Value (M)	305,392.90	319,697.13	334,563.24
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,003.00	2,003.00	2,003.00
Fair Value	$152.47	$159.61	$167.03
Upside / Downside	-20.59%	-16.87%	-13.00%

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PT Indonesia Pondasi Raya Tbk (IDPR.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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