Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.91 - $30.07$19.88
Multi-Stage$10.61 - $11.57$11.08
Blended Fair Value$15.48
Current Price$6.73
Upside130.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.400.390.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.16%5.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)72.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.5621.6012.96
Cash Retained (M)72.9572.9572.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.56-21.60-12.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)38.3951.3559.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)238.72238.72238.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.220.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.91$19.88$30.07
Upside / Downside106.62%195.36%346.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.80184.04196.00208.74222.31236.76243.86
Payout Ratio57.78%64.23%70.67%77.11%83.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.85118.20138.51160.97185.75213.08225.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)106.55107.56108.57
Year 2 PV (M)112.55114.69116.86
Year 3 PV (M)117.90121.29124.74
Year 4 PV (M)122.65127.36132.21
Year 5 PV (M)126.82132.95139.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,947.532,041.602,139.27
Equity Value (M)2,534.002,645.452,760.95
Shares Outstanding (M)238.72238.72238.72
Fair Value$10.61$11.08$11.57
Upside / Downside57.73%64.66%71.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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