DDM Analysis: HVN.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$114.67 - $135.17	$126.65
Multi-Stage	$456.61 - $502.53	$479.13
Blended Fair Value	$302.89
Current Price	$5.27
Upside	5,647.38%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-1.50%	-1.09%	0.24	0.22	0.30	0.35	0.38	0.26	0.27	0.21	0.28	0.21
YoY Growth	-	-	9.09%	-27.87%	-12.86%	-7.89%	46.81%	-5.73%	27.97%	-22.50%	29.26%	-20.01%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.55%	5.25%	8.75%	9.42%	6.92%	7.30%	6.96%	6.71%	7.53%	4.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	870.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	573.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	297.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	174.09	108.81	65.29
Cash Retained (M)	297.31	297.31	297.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-174.09	-108.81	-65.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	123.21	188.50	232.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,248.43	1,248.43	1,248.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.15	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	0.46	0.46	0.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.10	0.15	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.56	0.61	0.64
WACC / Discount Rate	-29.77%	-29.77%	-29.77%
Growth Rate	2.79%	3.79%	4.79%
Fair Value	$114.67	$126.65	$135.17
Upside / Downside	2,075.98%	2,303.13%	2,464.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	870.47	903.47	937.73	973.29	1,010.19	1,048.50	1,079.95
Payout Ratio	65.85%	70.68%	75.51%	80.34%	85.17%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	573.16	638.54	708.06	781.92	860.37	943.65	998.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-29.77%	-29.77%	-29.77%
Growth Rate	2.79%	3.79%	4.79%
Year 1 PV (M)	900.40	909.16	917.92
Year 2 PV (M)	1,407.84	1,435.37	1,463.16
Year 3 PV (M)	2,192.27	2,256.88	2,322.74
Year 4 PV (M)	3,401.42	3,535.73	3,673.97
Year 5 PV (M)	5,260.50	5,521.41	5,792.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	556,882.69	584,502.79	613,208.11
Equity Value (M)	570,045.12	598,161.34	627,378.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,248.43	1,248.43	1,248.43
Fair Value	$456.61	$479.13	$502.53
Upside / Downside	8,564.29%	8,991.63%	9,435.71%

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Harvey Norman Holdings Limited (HVN.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener