Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Humana Inc. (HUM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Healthcare PlansSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,548.93 - $2,126.05$1,992.42
Multi-Stage$356.76 - $390.70$373.42
Blended Fair Value$1,182.92
Current Price$260.17
Upside354.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.17%9.62%3.573.573.252.932.672.412.191.821.471.42
YoY Growth--0.00%9.95%10.73%9.60%11.00%9.81%20.45%24.29%2.91%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.02%0.67%0.67%0.64%0.77%0.82%0.68%0.71%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,291.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)429.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)258.20161.3896.83
Cash Retained (M)862.00862.00862.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-258.20-161.38-96.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)603.80700.63765.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.76120.76120.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.005.806.34
LTM Dividend per Share3.553.553.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.005.806.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.559.359.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,548.93$1,992.42$2,126.05
Upside / Downside495.35%665.81%717.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,291.001,374.921,464.281,559.461,660.831,768.781,821.85
Payout Ratio33.23%44.58%55.94%67.29%78.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)429.00612.99819.091,049.391,306.181,591.901,685.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)572.42577.85583.27
Year 2 PV (M)714.25727.86741.59
Year 3 PV (M)854.51879.04904.03
Year 4 PV (M)993.201,031.401,070.68
Year 5 PV (M)1,130.351,184.941,241.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,818.9440,693.9142,640.64
Equity Value (M)43,083.6745,094.9947,181.84
Shares Outstanding (M)120.76120.76120.76
Fair Value$356.76$373.42$390.70
Upside / Downside37.13%43.53%50.17%

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