Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hufvudstaden AB (publ) (HUFV-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.60 - $59.18$49.58
Multi-Stage$75.76 - $83.20$79.41
Blended Fair Value$64.50
Current Price$126.80
Upside-49.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.47%-0.38%2.702.702.602.503.983.783.573.373.162.96
YoY Growth--0.00%3.84%3.99%-37.12%5.40%5.72%6.05%6.46%6.89%5.47%
Dividend Yield--2.39%2.12%1.85%1.87%3.14%2.78%2.22%2.72%2.38%2.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,102.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)566.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)535.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)220.44137.7882.67
Cash Retained (M)535.70535.70535.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-220.44-137.78-82.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)315.26397.93453.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.03202.03202.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.561.972.24
LTM Dividend per Share2.802.802.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.561.972.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.364.775.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate-2.38%-1.38%-0.38%
Fair Value$40.60$49.58$59.18
Upside / Downside-67.98%-60.90%-53.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,102.201,087.031,072.061,057.311,042.751,028.401,059.25
Payout Ratio51.40%59.12%66.84%74.56%82.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)566.50642.63716.55788.32857.97925.56979.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate-2.38%-1.38%-0.38%
Year 1 PV (M)588.35594.37600.40
Year 2 PV (M)600.61612.98625.47
Year 3 PV (M)604.95623.73642.90
Year 4 PV (M)602.79627.87653.73
Year 5 PV (M)595.35626.47658.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,312.9912,956.6813,627.02
Equity Value (M)15,305.0516,042.1216,808.40
Shares Outstanding (M)202.03202.03202.03
Fair Value$75.76$79.41$83.20
Upside / Downside-40.25%-37.38%-34.39%

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