Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Haad Thip Public Company Limited (HTC-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$78.73 - $289.99$241.26
Multi-Stage$37.48 - $40.95$39.18
Blended Fair Value$140.22
Current Price$14.90
Upside841.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.82%18.03%1.040.970.760.980.880.600.500.360.270.15
YoY Growth--7.78%27.82%-22.57%10.79%47.95%20.00%36.99%32.73%83.33%-25.00%
Dividend Yield--6.38%5.68%4.51%5.95%4.46%6.92%6.89%2.68%3.43%2.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)585.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)409.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)175.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.1773.2343.94
Cash Retained (M)175.89175.89175.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.17-73.23-43.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.72102.66131.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)401.78401.78401.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.260.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.260.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$78.73$241.26$289.99
Upside / Downside428.37%1,519.21%1,846.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)585.85623.93664.48707.67753.67802.66826.74
Payout Ratio69.98%73.98%77.99%81.99%86.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)409.96461.59518.20580.23648.12722.39764.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)427.09431.14435.19
Year 2 PV (M)443.63452.08460.61
Year 3 PV (M)459.61472.80486.24
Year 4 PV (M)475.02493.28512.07
Year 5 PV (M)489.88513.54538.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,763.0813,379.5414,019.59
Equity Value (M)15,058.3015,742.3816,451.82
Shares Outstanding (M)401.78401.78401.78
Fair Value$37.48$39.18$40.95
Upside / Downside151.54%162.97%174.82%

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