Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hennessy Advisors, Inc. (HNNA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.16 - $17.02$13.91
Multi-Stage$23.20 - $25.55$24.35
Blended Fair Value$19.13
Current Price$10.45
Upside83.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.520.510.500.500.450.360.280.19
YoY Growth---100.00%-99.80%1.56%1.69%0.13%12.09%22.75%30.45%47.33%8.46%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.01%7.73%6.08%4.71%5.89%4.44%3.64%1.69%0.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.991.250.75
Cash Retained (M)7.867.867.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.99-1.25-0.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.876.617.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.917.917.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.840.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.840.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.011.101.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.16$13.91$17.02
Upside / Downside6.83%33.08%62.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9.969.869.769.669.579.479.76
Payout Ratio21.11%34.89%48.67%62.45%76.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.103.444.756.037.298.529.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.193.223.25
Year 2 PV (M)4.084.164.25
Year 3 PV (M)4.804.955.10
Year 4 PV (M)5.375.605.83
Year 5 PV (M)5.826.126.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)160.14168.48177.16
Equity Value (M)183.39192.52202.02
Shares Outstanding (M)7.917.917.91
Fair Value$23.20$24.35$25.55
Upside / Downside121.97%133.02%144.51%

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