Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Home Federal Bancorp, Inc. of Louisiana (HFBL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.21 - $291.05$168.25
Multi-Stage$45.15 - $49.48$47.28
Blended Fair Value$107.76
Current Price$13.77
Upside682.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.36%10.27%0.530.510.500.440.360.370.340.300.230.21
YoY Growth--3.82%2.55%13.08%20.59%-1.75%8.66%13.74%31.06%6.82%7.67%
Dividend Yield--3.85%4.05%3.43%2.35%1.95%3.22%2.09%1.76%1.72%1.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.910.570.34
Cash Retained (M)2.912.912.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.91-0.57-0.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.002.342.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.073.073.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.760.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.760.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Fair Value$68.21$168.25$291.05
Upside / Downside395.36%1,121.87%2,013.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4.554.795.055.325.615.916.09
Payout Ratio35.96%46.77%57.57%68.38%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.642.242.913.644.445.325.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate4.39%5.39%6.39%
Year 1 PV (M)2.092.112.13
Year 2 PV (M)2.532.582.63
Year 3 PV (M)2.953.043.13
Year 4 PV (M)3.363.493.63
Year 5 PV (M)3.763.944.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)124.15130.21136.50
Equity Value (M)138.84145.37152.14
Shares Outstanding (M)3.073.073.07
Fair Value$45.15$47.28$49.48
Upside / Downside227.90%243.32%259.33%

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