Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Helvetia Holding AG (HELN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.92 - $195.33$157.33
Multi-Stage$191.62 - $209.62$200.45
Blended Fair Value$178.89
Current Price$186.10
Upside-3.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.22%7.85%6.656.376.095.525.194.924.724.384.023.90
YoY Growth--4.48%4.56%10.36%6.21%5.60%4.20%7.75%8.91%3.04%24.94%
Dividend Yield--4.45%5.49%5.65%5.14%5.56%3.60%4.11%3.99%3.67%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)671.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)514.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)156.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.2483.9050.34
Cash Retained (M)156.95156.95156.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.24-83.90-50.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.7173.05106.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)53.0153.0153.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.431.382.01
LTM Dividend per Share9.709.709.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.431.382.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.1311.0811.71
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate0.34%1.34%2.34%
Fair Value$124.92$157.33$195.33
Upside / Downside-32.88%-15.46%4.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)671.20680.20689.31698.55707.91717.40738.92
Payout Ratio76.62%79.29%81.97%84.65%87.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)514.25539.35565.03591.30618.17645.66683.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate0.34%1.34%2.34%
Year 1 PV (M)492.30497.20502.11
Year 2 PV (M)470.74480.17489.69
Year 3 PV (M)449.65463.23477.08
Year 4 PV (M)429.08446.44464.32
Year 5 PV (M)409.06429.85451.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,906.648,308.568,726.66
Equity Value (M)10,157.4610,625.4511,111.35
Shares Outstanding (M)53.0153.0153.01
Fair Value$191.62$200.45$209.62
Upside / Downside2.97%7.71%12.64%

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