Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HCI Group, Inc. (HCI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$818.74 - $3,172.40$2,306.85
Multi-Stage$382.91 - $419.33$400.78
Blended Fair Value$1,353.82
Current Price$191.93
Upside605.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.99%3.00%1.301.071.191.100.991.020.891.090.970.97
YoY Growth--20.99%-9.94%8.30%10.80%-2.44%14.97%-18.61%11.80%0.08%0.59%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.93%2.22%1.61%1.29%2.53%2.09%2.85%2.13%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)203.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)185.58
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.7925.4915.30
Cash Retained (M)185.58185.58185.58
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.79-25.49-15.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)144.80160.09170.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.7812.7812.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share11.3312.5213.32
LTM Dividend per Share1.441.441.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share11.3312.5213.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.7613.9614.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$818.74$2,306.85$3,172.40
Upside / Downside326.58%1,101.92%1,552.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)203.94217.19231.31246.34262.36279.41287.79
Payout Ratio9.00%25.20%41.40%57.60%73.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.3554.7395.76141.89193.62251.47266.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)50.6051.0851.56
Year 2 PV (M)81.8683.4184.99
Year 3 PV (M)112.14115.36118.64
Year 4 PV (M)141.47146.92152.51
Year 5 PV (M)169.88178.09186.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,339.364,548.954,766.57
Equity Value (M)4,895.315,123.815,360.87
Shares Outstanding (M)12.7812.7812.78
Fair Value$382.91$400.78$419.33
Upside / Downside99.51%108.82%118.48%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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