DDM Analysis: HBT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.36 - $30.38	$25.13
Multi-Stage	$38.78 - $42.65	$40.67
Blended Fair Value	$32.90
Current Price	$25.20
Upside	30.56%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-35.98%	0.00%	0.77	0.69	0.59	0.53	0.52	7.12	1.35	1.81	1.29	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	10.56%	17.70%	10.93%	1.42%	-92.66%	427.81%	-25.32%	40.06%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.42%	3.70%	2.98%	2.92%	3.06%	67.66%	8.69%	11.63%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	78.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	26.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	52.33

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	15.67	9.79	5.88
Cash Retained (M)	52.33	52.33	52.33
(-) Cash Required (M)	-15.67	-9.79	-5.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	36.66	42.54	46.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	31.57	31.57	31.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.16	1.35	1.47
LTM Dividend per Share	0.82	0.82	0.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.16	1.35	1.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.99	2.17	2.30
WACC / Discount Rate	7.55%	7.55%	7.55%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$20.36	$25.13	$30.38
Upside / Downside	-19.20%	-0.28%	20.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	78.34	77.56	76.78	76.02	75.26	74.50	76.74
Payout Ratio	33.20%	44.56%	55.92%	67.28%	78.64%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	26.01	34.56	42.94	51.14	59.18	67.05	70.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.55%	7.55%	7.55%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	31.81	32.13	32.46
Year 2 PV (M)	36.37	37.12	37.87
Year 3 PV (M)	39.87	41.11	42.36
Year 4 PV (M)	42.47	44.23	46.04
Year 5 PV (M)	44.28	46.59	48.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,029.47	1,083.08	1,138.89
Equity Value (M)	1,224.27	1,284.25	1,346.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	31.57	31.57	31.57
Fair Value	$38.78	$40.67	$42.65
Upside / Downside	53.87%	61.41%	69.25%

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HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener