Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Havas S.A. (HAVAS.AS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.89 - $58.10$45.13
Multi-Stage$122.81 - $135.34$128.95
Blended Fair Value$87.04
Current Price$14.60
Upside496.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%2.060.750.680.290.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--176.47%10.39%133.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.72%4.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)348.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)314.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.6043.5026.10
Cash Retained (M)34.0034.0034.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.60-43.50-26.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-35.60-9.507.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)114.02114.02114.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.31-0.080.07
LTM Dividend per Share2.752.752.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.31-0.080.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.442.672.82
WACC / Discount Rate4.86%4.86%4.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$34.89$45.13$58.10
Upside / Downside138.95%209.08%297.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)348.00344.52341.07337.66334.29330.94340.87
Payout Ratio90.23%90.18%90.14%90.09%90.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)314.00310.70307.44304.21301.01297.85315.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.86%4.86%4.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)293.31296.30299.30
Year 2 PV (M)273.99279.61285.28
Year 3 PV (M)255.93263.85271.92
Year 4 PV (M)239.07248.98259.19
Year 5 PV (M)223.32234.95247.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,717.0613,379.2714,068.78
Equity Value (M)14,002.6814,702.9615,431.53
Shares Outstanding (M)114.02114.02114.02
Fair Value$122.81$128.95$135.34
Upside / Downside741.16%783.23%827.00%

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