Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Granite Real Estate Investment Trust (GRP-UN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$512.56 - $931.82$873.25
Multi-Stage$150.51 - $164.60$157.43
Blended Fair Value$515.34
Current Price$77.59
Upside564.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.66%7.25%3.353.293.263.082.632.432.021.981.821.75
YoY Growth--1.93%0.80%5.86%17.18%8.27%20.36%2.03%8.44%4.40%4.96%
Dividend Yield--4.97%4.33%3.89%3.19%3.44%4.18%3.16%3.88%3.91%4.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)290.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)208.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)82.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)58.1236.3321.80
Cash Retained (M)82.2182.2182.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-58.12-36.33-21.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.0945.8860.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.0362.0362.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.740.97
LTM Dividend per Share3.363.363.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.740.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.754.104.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$512.56$873.25$931.82
Upside / Downside560.61%1,025.47%1,100.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)290.62309.51329.62351.05373.87398.17410.11
Payout Ratio71.71%75.37%79.03%82.68%86.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)208.41233.27260.49290.26322.81358.35379.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.27%6.27%6.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)217.45219.51221.57
Year 2 PV (M)226.34230.65235.01
Year 3 PV (M)235.10241.85248.73
Year 4 PV (M)243.72253.09262.73
Year 5 PV (M)252.20264.38277.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,160.698,554.858,964.10
Equity Value (M)9,335.499,764.3310,209.16
Shares Outstanding (M)62.0362.0362.03
Fair Value$150.51$157.43$164.60
Upside / Downside93.98%102.89%112.14%

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