Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Griffon Corporation (GFF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$182.62 - $215.19$201.65
Multi-Stage$89.55 - $98.26$93.82
Blended Fair Value$147.74
Current Price$76.15
Upside94.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.26%17.89%0.850.762.862.700.370.310.291.060.220.19
YoY Growth--10.85%-73.24%5.63%639.12%17.96%6.24%-72.54%382.30%17.36%14.95%
Dividend Yield--1.11%1.07%4.69%7.56%1.38%1.64%1.55%10.95%1.17%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.226.393.83
Cash Retained (M)11.4211.4211.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.22-6.39-3.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.205.037.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.8446.8446.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.110.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.110.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate4.25%4.25%4.25%
Growth Rate4.60%5.60%6.60%
Fair Value$182.62$201.65$215.19
Upside / Downside139.82%164.81%182.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.1153.9756.9960.1863.5567.1069.12
Payout Ratio77.66%80.13%82.60%85.06%87.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.6943.2547.0751.1955.6260.3963.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.25%4.25%4.25%
Growth Rate4.60%5.60%6.60%
Year 1 PV (M)41.0941.4841.88
Year 2 PV (M)42.5043.3244.14
Year 3 PV (M)43.9245.1946.48
Year 4 PV (M)45.3447.1048.91
Year 5 PV (M)46.7849.0651.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,974.594,168.264,369.40
Equity Value (M)4,194.224,394.404,602.23
Shares Outstanding (M)46.8446.8446.84
Fair Value$89.55$93.82$98.26
Upside / Downside17.59%23.21%29.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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