Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Guess', Inc. (GES)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.34 - $36.99$27.26
Multi-Stage$41.34 - $45.44$43.35
Blended Fair Value$35.30
Current Price$16.98
Upside107.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.79%-1.80%1.151.130.930.660.280.761.321.371.371.38
YoY Growth--2.26%21.16%41.03%136.28%-63.09%-42.75%-3.24%-0.58%-0.46%-0.19%
Dividend Yield--10.15%4.22%4.94%2.94%1.03%9.33%6.48%5.87%12.32%7.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)80.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.0710.056.03
Cash Retained (M)30.9330.9330.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.07-10.05-6.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.8520.8824.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.6655.6655.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.380.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.380.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.151.261.34
WACC / Discount Rate5.85%5.85%5.85%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Fair Value$20.34$27.26$36.99
Upside / Downside19.76%60.51%117.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)80.3681.3082.2483.2084.1785.1587.71
Payout Ratio61.52%67.21%72.91%78.61%84.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.4454.6459.9765.4070.9676.6481.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.85%5.85%5.85%
Growth Rate0.17%1.17%2.17%
Year 1 PV (M)51.1151.6252.13
Year 2 PV (M)52.4653.5254.58
Year 3 PV (M)53.5255.1456.79
Year 4 PV (M)54.3256.5258.79
Year 5 PV (M)54.8757.6660.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,035.142,138.782,246.60
Equity Value (M)2,301.422,413.242,529.46
Shares Outstanding (M)55.6655.6655.66
Fair Value$41.34$43.35$45.44
Upside / Downside143.49%155.32%167.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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