DDM Analysis: GEMA.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$394.44 - $1,039.68	$602.06
Multi-Stage	$999.56 - $1,100.81	$1,049.20
Blended Fair Value	$825.63
Current Price	$96.00
Upside	760.03%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	13.06%	5.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	5.00	5.00	5.00	7.00	3.20	1.42
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-28.57%	118.75%	126.05%	-3.41%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.50%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.44%	1.45%	1.49%	2.55%	3.43%	2.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	28,303.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	8,247.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20,055.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,660.65	3,537.91	2,122.74
Cash Retained (M)	20,055.74	20,055.74	20,055.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,660.65	-3,537.91	-2,122.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	14,395.09	16,517.84	17,933.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,600.00	1,600.00	1,600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	9.00	10.32	11.21
LTM Dividend per Share	5.15	5.15	5.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	9.00	10.32	11.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	14.15	15.48	16.36
WACC / Discount Rate	4.49%	4.49%	4.49%
Growth Rate	0.87%	1.87%	2.87%
Fair Value	$394.44	$602.06	$1,039.68
Upside / Downside	310.88%	527.14%	983.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	28,303.24	28,832.97	29,372.62	29,922.37	30,482.40	31,052.92	31,984.51
Payout Ratio	29.14%	41.31%	53.48%	65.66%	77.83%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	8,247.50	11,911.43	15,709.61	19,645.80	23,723.83	27,947.63	29,585.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.49%	4.49%	4.49%
Growth Rate	0.87%	1.87%	2.87%
Year 1 PV (M)	11,287.61	11,399.51	11,511.41
Year 2 PV (M)	14,107.24	14,388.34	14,672.20
Year 3 PV (M)	16,718.02	17,220.17	17,732.28
Year 4 PV (M)	19,131.02	19,901.01	20,694.00
Year 5 PV (M)	21,356.82	22,436.64	23,559.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,516,690.07	1,593,374.73	1,673,130.27
Equity Value (M)	1,599,290.79	1,678,720.39	1,761,299.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,600.00	1,600.00	1,600.00
Fair Value	$999.56	$1,049.20	$1,100.81
Upside / Downside	941.20%	992.92%	1,046.68%

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PT Gema Grahasarana Tbk (GEMA.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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