Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fleetwood Limited (FWD.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.61 - $38.42$36.00
Multi-Stage$24.94 - $27.36$26.13
Blended Fair Value$31.07
Current Price$2.58
Upside1,104.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%29.13%0.140.050.000.120.180.000.000.030.000.00
YoY Growth--201.43%0.00%-100.00%-30.86%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--5.33%2.95%0.00%9.54%7.60%0.00%0.00%1.54%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.672.291.38
Cash Retained (M)0.940.940.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.67-2.29-1.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.73-1.35-0.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)94.9994.9994.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.61$36.00$38.42
Upside / Downside1,163.94%1,295.53%1,389.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18.3519.5420.8122.1723.6125.1425.90
Payout Ratio94.88%93.90%92.93%91.95%90.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.4118.3519.3420.3821.4822.6323.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.13%0.13%0.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)18.1618.3318.50
Year 2 PV (M)18.9319.2919.65
Year 3 PV (M)19.7420.3020.88
Year 4 PV (M)20.5721.3722.18
Year 5 PV (M)21.4522.4823.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,270.262,379.912,493.76
Equity Value (M)2,369.102,481.682,598.53
Shares Outstanding (M)94.9994.9994.99
Fair Value$24.94$26.13$27.36
Upside / Downside866.72%912.66%960.34%

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