DDM Analysis: FMNB

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$57.65 - $287.03	$120.85
Multi-Stage	$31.92 - $34.88	$33.37
Blended Fair Value	$77.11
Current Price	$14.41
Upside	435.14%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.22%	27.50%	0.67	0.67	0.58	0.37	0.34	0.28	0.22	0.16	0.11	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.03%	15.42%	56.37%	11.21%	20.07%	26.73%	38.32%	38.97%	61.24%	19.99%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.17%	5.12%	4.62%	2.19%	2.01%	2.41%	1.56%	1.15%	0.80%	0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	54.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	25.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)	28.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.87	6.79	4.08
Cash Retained (M)	28.89	28.89	28.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.87	-6.79	-4.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.03	22.10	24.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	37.65	37.65	37.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.59	0.66
LTM Dividend per Share	0.68	0.68	0.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.59	0.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.15	1.26	1.34
WACC / Discount Rate	7.61%	7.61%	7.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$57.65	$120.85	$287.03
Upside / Downside	300.08%	738.66%	1,891.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	54.34	57.87	61.63	65.64	69.91	74.45	76.68
Payout Ratio	46.83%	55.46%	64.10%	72.73%	81.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	25.45	32.10	39.51	47.74	56.88	67.01	70.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.61%	7.61%	7.61%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	29.55	29.83	30.11
Year 2 PV (M)	33.48	34.11	34.76
Year 3 PV (M)	37.24	38.31	39.40
Year 4 PV (M)	40.84	42.41	44.03
Year 5 PV (M)	44.29	46.43	48.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,016.40	1,065.49	1,116.47
Equity Value (M)	1,201.80	1,256.58	1,313.41
Shares Outstanding (M)	37.65	37.65	37.65
Fair Value	$31.92	$33.37	$34.88
Upside / Downside	121.51%	131.61%	142.08%

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Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener