Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fortescue Ltd (FMG.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.81 - $319.00$142.62
Multi-Stage$70.23 - $76.76$73.43
Blended Fair Value$108.03
Current Price$10.05
Upside974.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.17%23.59%0.931.341.272.171.840.620.720.280.250.04
YoY Growth---31.14%5.56%-41.45%17.86%195.27%-13.29%154.00%15.76%562.28%-66.76%
Dividend Yield--9.21%9.27%8.63%17.97%10.54%6.54%11.31%8.73%6.11%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,122.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,991.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,130.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,824.511,140.32684.19
Cash Retained (M)2,130.662,130.662,130.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,824.51-1,140.32-684.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)306.14990.341,446.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,080.773,080.773,080.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.320.47
LTM Dividend per Share2.272.272.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.320.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.372.592.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Fair Value$84.81$142.62$319.00
Upside / Downside743.90%1,319.12%3,074.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,122.579,603.8110,110.4310,643.7911,205.2811,796.3812,150.28
Payout Ratio76.64%79.32%81.99%84.66%87.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,991.917,617.298,289.199,010.789,785.4410,616.7511,239.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Year 1 PV (M)7,038.987,106.497,173.99
Year 2 PV (M)7,078.337,214.757,352.46
Year 3 PV (M)7,110.357,316.887,527.38
Year 4 PV (M)7,135.407,413.087,698.78
Year 5 PV (M)7,153.847,503.517,866.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)180,837.75189,676.83198,858.22
Equity Value (M)216,354.66226,231.54236,477.56
Shares Outstanding (M)3,080.773,080.773,080.77
Fair Value$70.23$73.43$76.76
Upside / Downside598.78%630.68%663.77%

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