Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$60.74 - $181.80$96.24
Multi-Stage$42.72 - $46.55$44.60
Blended Fair Value$70.42
Current Price$31.87
Upside120.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.86%21.21%1.891.891.760.981.240.770.620.470.380.35
YoY Growth--0.41%7.14%79.23%-21.00%62.37%23.56%31.89%23.35%8.57%26.77%
Dividend Yield--6.61%7.18%5.90%2.67%2.70%2.66%1.53%1.19%0.96%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)245.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)195.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.0830.6818.41
Cash Retained (M)50.2050.2050.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.08-30.68-18.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.1219.5331.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.39103.39103.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.190.31
LTM Dividend per Share1.891.891.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.190.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.902.082.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$60.74$96.24$181.80
Upside / Downside90.58%201.97%470.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)245.40261.35278.34296.43315.70336.22346.31
Payout Ratio79.54%81.63%83.73%85.82%87.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)195.20213.35233.04254.39277.53302.60320.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)194.26196.10197.94
Year 2 PV (M)193.20196.88200.59
Year 3 PV (M)192.02197.53203.15
Year 4 PV (M)190.73198.07205.61
Year 5 PV (M)189.35198.50207.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,457.093,624.073,797.44
Equity Value (M)4,416.654,611.144,812.72
Shares Outstanding (M)103.39103.39103.39
Fair Value$42.72$44.60$46.55
Upside / Downside34.04%39.94%46.06%

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