Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,878.00 - $5,584.43$3,954.31
Multi-Stage$2,138.69 - $2,336.69$2,235.90
Blended Fair Value$3,095.11
Current Price$1,789.16
Upside72.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS54.18%29.91%11.798.736.203.132.241.351.251.081.081.34
YoY Growth--35.04%40.96%97.62%40.00%65.41%8.09%16.42%0.00%-20.00%56.07%
Dividend Yield--0.64%0.54%0.64%0.47%0.27%0.41%0.30%0.26%0.32%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,326.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,163.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)465.20290.75174.45
Cash Retained (M)2,163.002,163.002,163.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-465.20-290.75-174.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,697.801,872.251,988.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13.4013.4013.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share126.73139.75148.43
LTM Dividend per Share12.1712.1712.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share126.73139.75148.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend138.89151.91160.59
WACC / Discount Rate10.59%10.59%10.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,878.00$3,954.31$5,584.43
Upside / Downside60.86%121.01%212.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,326.002,477.192,638.212,809.692,992.323,186.823,282.43
Payout Ratio7.01%23.61%40.20%56.80%73.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.00584.771,060.681,595.992,196.412,868.143,036.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.59%10.59%10.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)523.80528.77533.73
Year 2 PV (M)851.04867.25883.61
Year 3 PV (M)1,147.031,179.961,213.51
Year 4 PV (M)1,413.971,468.341,524.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,653.891,733.771,816.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,063.1824,177.1425,333.73
Equity Value (M)28,652.9029,955.2231,305.57
Shares Outstanding (M)13.4013.4013.40
Fair Value$2,138.69$2,235.90$2,336.69
Upside / Downside19.54%24.97%30.60%

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