Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fastenal Company (FAST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.84 - $94.95$46.91
Multi-Stage$20.44 - $22.29$21.35
Blended Fair Value$34.13
Current Price$49.04
Upside-30.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.37%11.66%0.780.880.620.560.700.430.380.320.300.28
YoY Growth---12.15%42.95%10.50%-19.88%61.13%12.83%19.72%6.49%5.96%10.29%
Dividend Yield--2.00%2.31%2.29%1.88%2.78%2.77%2.34%2.35%2.34%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,226.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)975.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.32153.3392.00
Cash Retained (M)251.50251.50251.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.32-153.33-92.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.1898.18159.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.951,149.951,149.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.090.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.090.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.850.930.99
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Fair Value$28.84$46.91$94.95
Upside / Downside-41.18%-4.35%93.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,226.601,303.761,385.761,472.931,565.581,664.061,713.98
Payout Ratio79.50%81.60%83.70%85.80%87.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)975.101,063.821,159.851,263.751,376.131,497.651,585.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)972.11981.34990.58
Year 2 PV (M)968.49986.971,005.63
Year 3 PV (M)964.27992.001,020.27
Year 4 PV (M)959.49996.471,034.50
Year 5 PV (M)954.201,000.381,048.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,688.6119,593.1120,532.30
Equity Value (M)23,507.1624,550.2725,631.60
Shares Outstanding (M)1,149.951,149.951,149.95
Fair Value$20.44$21.35$22.29
Upside / Downside-58.32%-56.47%-54.55%

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