Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ford Motor Company (F)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.70 - $22.57$17.64
Multi-Stage$15.54 - $16.96$16.24
Blended Fair Value$16.94
Current Price$11.96
Upside41.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.47%4.79%0.781.240.500.100.150.600.720.640.840.59
YoY Growth---37.58%148.63%398.51%-32.38%-75.05%-17.76%12.42%-23.46%41.85%21.93%
Dividend Yield--7.74%9.36%3.97%0.59%1.21%12.32%8.06%5.81%7.22%4.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,706.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,986.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,720.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)941.20588.25352.95
Cash Retained (M)1,720.001,720.001,720.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-941.20-588.25-352.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)778.801,131.751,367.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,014.634,014.634,014.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.280.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.280.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.08
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Fair Value$13.70$17.64$22.57
Upside / Downside14.58%47.51%88.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,706.004,884.585,069.945,262.335,462.035,669.305,839.38
Payout Ratio63.45%68.76%74.07%79.38%84.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,986.003,358.673,755.334,177.264,625.805,102.375,401.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate2.79%3.79%4.79%
Year 1 PV (M)3,028.623,058.083,087.55
Year 2 PV (M)3,053.533,113.233,173.51
Year 3 PV (M)3,062.833,153.093,245.10
Year 4 PV (M)3,058.413,179.173,303.47
Year 5 PV (M)3,041.993,192.863,349.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)47,153.6349,492.2751,922.80
Equity Value (M)62,399.0265,188.7168,082.09
Shares Outstanding (M)4,014.634,014.634,014.63
Fair Value$15.54$16.24$16.96
Upside / Downside29.96%35.77%41.79%

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