Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Equity Commonwealth (EQC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - OfficeSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.63 - $0.82$0.73
Multi-Stage$1.80 - $2.02$1.91
Blended Fair Value$1.32
Current Price$1.61
Upside-18.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-53.19%-10.62%0.094.331.040.063.953.962.820.000.000.00
YoY Growth---97.94%317.32%1,762.53%-98.59%-0.20%40.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--5.53%23.09%4.99%0.20%14.22%12.46%8.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)23.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.732.961.77
Cash Retained (M)21.6321.6321.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.73-2.96-1.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.9018.6719.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)108.19108.19108.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.170.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-16.21%-15.21%-14.21%
Fair Value$0.63$0.73$0.82
Upside / Downside-60.79%-54.65%-49.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)23.6620.0617.0114.4312.2310.3710.68
Payout Ratio8.60%24.88%41.16%57.44%73.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.044.997.008.299.029.339.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-16.21%-15.21%-14.21%
Year 1 PV (M)4.614.674.72
Year 2 PV (M)5.976.116.26
Year 3 PV (M)6.526.767.00
Year 4 PV (M)6.566.887.21
Year 5 PV (M)6.276.657.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)165.29175.40185.99
Equity Value (M)195.23206.46218.23
Shares Outstanding (M)108.19108.19108.19
Fair Value$1.80$1.91$2.02
Upside / Downside12.08%18.53%25.29%

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