Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

The Ensign Group, Inc. (ENSG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$134.56 - $368.57$207.76
Multi-Stage$89.18 - $97.56$93.29
Blended Fair Value$150.53
Current Price$172.77
Upside-12.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.05%8.06%0.230.220.210.200.180.170.160.150.140.13
YoY Growth--6.06%5.93%5.37%6.63%6.28%8.19%8.05%6.66%9.06%19.01%
Dividend Yield--0.18%0.18%0.22%0.22%0.20%0.46%0.34%0.60%0.79%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)328.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)313.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.6441.0324.62
Cash Retained (M)313.98313.98313.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.64-41.03-24.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)248.34272.95289.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.6658.6658.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.234.654.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.234.654.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.484.905.18
WACC / Discount Rate9.01%9.01%9.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$134.56$207.76$368.57
Upside / Downside-22.12%20.26%113.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)328.20349.54372.26396.45422.22449.67463.16
Payout Ratio4.34%21.47%38.60%55.73%72.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.2375.04143.70220.96307.66404.70428.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.01%9.01%9.01%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)68.1968.8469.48
Year 2 PV (M)118.66120.92123.21
Year 3 PV (M)165.82170.58175.43
Year 4 PV (M)209.81217.88226.18
Year 5 PV (M)250.80262.91275.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,417.974,631.364,852.92
Equity Value (M)5,231.255,472.495,722.70
Shares Outstanding (M)58.6658.6658.66
Fair Value$89.18$93.29$97.56
Upside / Downside-48.38%-46.00%-43.53%

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